Friday, December 2, 2011

Developing World Transition

One thing which will not be spoken of by politicians of either party during the coming elections is this:
The most frightening and disruptive changes to the Western economies—including the US—are inevitable, irrespective of which parties govern.  The migration of jobs to the developing countries of the Third World will continue, and cannot be reversed. 

No politicians dare acknowlege this publicly for fear of the talking-point it would provide to the opposition, but those who drive policy have known it for years. 

It’s not just low wages that draw the jobs; over time, these countries have have built the physical, technological, and educational infrastructure—much of it with help from advanced economies— to compete at advantage against the west for the foreseeable future. 

Competing political parties in advanced industrial world will spin this trend so as to blame their opposition – and to promise to stem the tide if their party is returned to power (or kept in power, as the case may be).  But, while an individual nation’s policy may cause a temporary inflection in the trendline, the general trajectory cannot be changed.  It is the future, and it should be faced with knowledge that it exists. 

The central question on the table in the US is whether those who continue to thrive during and after this epochal transition—including those who have driven and guided the transition for their own gain—have any obligation to those who are left behind. 

Watching the terms of debate in the US, it seems that the answer here is an emphatic ‘No’.  Those who either deny the inevitability of this transition, or who simply don’t care about those left behind seem to control the outcome.  This will result in a great deal of suffering. 

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